Even his methodology writing this book is foolish. “Every man believes that he is quite different.”. Can't repeat it? You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous analysis) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and “cutting edge” research). Unable to add item to List. The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto), Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto), The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms (Incerto), Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do, IT’S TIME TO TAKE BACK OUR COUNTRY: A Prayer Guide to Changing History, LA HISTORIA QUE TE CUENTAS: Cómo contarte una historia de éxito (Spanish Edition). (. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to weave a fantastically engaging and entertaining book out of what could very easily be a dry and technical topic is just icing in the cake. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in. Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. He's right, one the opposite is no good either, because there are thousands of other books we could be reading to learn things, and this book is a poor ROI. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not. Humans are inherently flawed. We are a species of fools. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. But Taleb is a special kind of fool, foolish enough to write an essay on how randomness fools us. Pascal: “the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. [4], "Does big data have us 'fooled by randomness'? Nothing new here, nothing original, just a description of experience and events, but something of which we need to be reminded of every so often. There is nothing wrong with benefitting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events. [2] Forbes described the book as being playful, self-effacing and at times insufferably arrogant, but always thought provoking. There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. "Fortune, Cruel Empress of the World” - The ancients knew her ever so well. Or vice versa. Something went wrong. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the Incerto, which also includes The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018). How to overcome these biases? Updated editions were released a few years later. Do not read it! They are sub optimal strategies winning over a randomly beneficial short term cycle. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto). Unsustainable and suboptimal for the long term. Having now finished reading this book, I will admit that if you can get past the author's arrogance in some places and overlook these as mere human flaws, then you will gain value from his insights. In this way, evolutionary traits that are undesirable can survive for a period of time in any given population. It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Emotions are “lubricants of reason.” We actually need to feel things to make decisions. Taleb sets forth the idea that modern humans are often unaware of the existence of randomness. “Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.”, “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”. This is a list of authors, books, and concepts mentioned in Fooled by Randomness, which might be useful for future reading. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic. You are a fool about to be fooled. .orange-text-color {font-weight:bold; color: #FE971E;}Ask Alexa to read your book with Audible integration or text-to-speech. Science is speculation. “Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. We seem to focus too much on “local” changes, not global ones. ), “This business of journalism is just about entertainment, particularly when it comes to radio and television.”. That is, suboptimal strategies and traits can seem desirable in the short run even though they will be resoundingly defeated in the long run. Even if they are at fault. Fascinating famous Swiss study of the amnesia patient who couldn't remember doctor's name but did remember him pricking her hand with a pin. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. Examples show that some people are just lucky, others unlucky, how the attribution fallacy, inductive fallacy and the false precision fallacy arise; that success is relative, how coincidence is mistaken for cause, how the mirage of false pattern recognition is mistaken for genuine phenomena; that opinions and selections are full of bias and human knowledge is replete with asymmetries. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. Outrageous even for a brave fool. She offers us a ride on the cyclical wheel of annihilation which ends in annihilation by cyclicality. It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than “new thinking” because for an idea to last so long it must be good. We do not think, but use heuristics to make decisions. This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all “puffed up” in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. But this should take one paragraph not 130 pages. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. As I am both a long term investor & short term trader, I found the real-life explanations of the psychological processes of Nassim's trader colleagues worth the read alone.

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